Need Help
If you need help setting up services or accessing your accounts, please call our Customer Care Team at 866.552.9172 during business hours (7 a.m. — 5 p.m. PST, M-F) or email us at CustomerCare@AgWestFC.com.
Location
If you need help setting up services or accessing your accounts, please call our Customer Care Team at 866.552.9172 during business hours (7 a.m. — 5 p.m. PST, M-F) or email us at CustomerCare@AgWestFC.com.
Location
If you need help setting up services or accessing your accounts, please call our Customer Care Team at 866.552.9172 during business hours (7 a.m. — 5 p.m. PST, M-F) or email us at CustomerCare@AgWestFC.com.
Securely update and exchange balance sheet information with your AgWest team.
Put your idle cash to work with a suite of banking services that sweeps funds between accounts. Fees apply.
AgWest Farm Credit’s 12-month outlook sees fisheries as slightly profitable.
12-Month Profitability Outlook
Alaskan groundfish supply flat
Total Allowable Catches (TAC) for Alaskan groundfish fisheries were held relatively flat for 2024 (see chart below). The impact to prices will depend on consumer demand and international market dynamics, particularly around rising supplies from Russia (see driver below).
Total Allowable Catch for Groundfish Species in the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands
Russian pollock supply grows
Increasing supply of Russian pollock may decrease prices for domestic operators. Russia harvested 26.6% more pollock in 2023 than 2022. This may grow given the 24% increase in TAC for 2024. Much of this added supply has gone into Asian markets and international prices for products such as surimi (minced fish paste) have fallen. Lower prices in international markets could pressure margins for Alaskan producers who cannot pivot into U.S. markets.
Biden Administration tightens restrictions on Russian seafood exports to the U.S.
Tighter restrictions on seafood imports from Russia should support domestic prices while lowering those in international markets. Despite a formal ban in 2022, Russian seafood has continued to enter U.S. markets because it is generally routed first through China for secondary processing and then reexported to the U.S. The recent executive order signed by the Biden Administration closed that loophole. It remains unclear how this policy change will impact producer margins.
Sablefish prices down
Sablefish prices were down in December given excess supply of small-sized fish and weak demand, particularly from Japan (the primary market for small-sized sablefish). Low prices coupled with high operating costs may pressure producer margins. Some producers may delay harvest in 2024 until prices recover.
Red King Crab benefits producers
Many predict strong prices and producer margins on the 2023 Red Kind Crab harvest, which was smaller than historical averages but improved over 2022 when the Bristol Bay fishery was closed.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East impact trade
The Houthis rebel group in Yemen has attacked several shipping vessels in the Red Sea, forcing some commercial shipping vessels traveling to/from Asia and Europe to reroute around South Africa. While this may not directly impact trade between the U.S. and Asia, it may:
See our Crop Inputs Snapshot for more information on shipping.
High costs impact profitability
Operating costs, particularly for labor, remain high and this is impacting profitability given relatively soft demand and oversupply in many different fisheries. Following lower consumer price inflation readings (see Quarterly Economic Update for more information), many are optimistic that costs will subside and market conditions improve in 2024.
Following a year where prices fell and operating costs remained high, many are optimistic that conditions will improve in 2024 to support profitability. The supply and demand balance for groundfish in domestic markets may improve due to flat 2024 TACs and tighter import restrictions for Russian seafood. However, international markets may soften as supply from Russia grows and is diverted away from the U.S. The prices for sablefish are down and this may impact producer margins. Producers benefited from the Red King Crab harvest this season. Escalating tensions in the Middle East may increase shipping costs and times, but may also provide an opportunity for producers to access European markets.
For more information or to share your thoughts and opinions, contact the Business Management Center at 866.552.9193 or bmc@AgWestFC.com.
To receive email notifications about western and global agricultural and economic perspectives, trends, programs, events, webinars and articles, visit www.AgWestFC.com/subscribe or contact the Business Management Center.
AgWest supports customers with a wide range of industry and business management resources
Learn more