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If you need help setting up services or accessing your accounts, please call our Customer Care Team at 866.552.9172 during business hours (7 a.m. — 5 p.m. PST, M-F) or email us at CustomerCare@AgWestFC.com.
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AgWest Farm Credit’s 12-month outlook sees pear growers as slightly profitable.
Drivers include steady demand, greater competition from Argentina, challenges with labor costs and availability, supply chain issues, and uncertainty regarding the 2023 crop.
12-Month Profitability Outlook
Demand strong
Strong demand is supporting prices. Consumers value pears and with good fruit quality, most expect this trend to continue to finish out the season.
Variety | Conventional | Organic | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2022/23 | |
Bartlett | $31.29 | $31.31 | $34.28 | N/A |
Anjou | $27.67 | $28.32 | $31.19 | $40.93 |
Bosc | $30.32 | $30.35 | $36.68 | $43.51 |
Red Anjou | $27.69 | $28.43 | $31.77 | $41.96 |
Imports from Argentina to increase
Northwest producers may experience greater competition from Argentinian imports in the first half of 2023. USDA estimates Argentinian production grew by 25% this season due to favorable weather conditions. Argentina exported approximately 4.2 million 20-lb boxes to the U.S. in 2022, roughly 27% the size of the Northwest crop.
Labor availability and costs are increasing concerns
Growing regions located near large population centers are facing increasing labor costs and availability pressures, particularly for orchards. Anecdotal reports suggest domestic labor is harder to come by than foreign labor. The presence of H-2A labor continues to increase across the West Coast, particularly in Washington and California; however, it does not appear to be matching demand. See the Crop Inputs Snapshot for further analysis of labor conditions.
Supply chain challenges persist
Packers may need to adopt alternative packaging methods and materials. Anecdotal reports suggest packers face increasing logistical challenges in procuring goods, particularly plastic bags, from China and this represents a new challenge to the industry and retailers. For a deeper analysis of supply chain and crop input conditions, see our Crop Inputs Snapshot.
Industry uncertain about 2023 crop
It remains too early for reliable pear crop estimates. Northwest growers are experiencing high levels of bud set, and this suggests a potentially large 2023 crop. Currently, there are several concerns:
Pear producers will likely see slightly profitable conditions on average for the 2022 crop. Strong demand is supporting prices, and this should continue to finish out the season. While competition from Argentina may increase, the impact on Northwest growers should be minimal. A high level of bud set suggests the potential for a very large 2023 crop, but again, it remains too early for reliable estimates.
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