In the News

AgWest’s industry and research teams gather market updates from various sources, including boots-on-the-ground insights from AgWest’s lending, appraisal and crop insurance teams. The AgWest Monthly Market Update also features unique insights into economic drivers impacting agriculture and forestry in the West.

AgWest’s outlook for major commodities is summarized below. Visit AgWestFC.com/industry-insights to view additional analysis for each industry.

Almonds and pistachios

A large 2024 almond crop coupled with inventory carryover will keep prices down and pressure producer margins for the 2024-25 season. A relatively large percentage of almond trees will be entering peak production over the next several years, which may keep markets oversupplied. The 2024 pistachio crop will come in smaller than 2023 and this should support prices during the 2024-25 season.

Apples

Early estimates suggest the 2024 apple crop will be about 120 to 125 million boxes, a level supportive of profitability for both producers and packers. Inventory carryover from the 2023 marketing season into the 2024 marketing season will likely hold prices down in the fall months. Diversified operations face mixed conditions.

Cattle

The U.S. cattle industry remains optimistic about continued growth through 2026. Producers are exercising caution in expanding their herds, balancing strong market prices and improved feed availability against the backdrop of labor shortages, high interest rates and market volatility.

Dairy

Western milk production fell due to smaller herds and ongoing heat may further suppress output. Better milk prices and lower feed costs are enhancing the industry’s financial outlook, fostering greater optimism for the latter half of 2024.

Forest products

Lumber mills are adapting their operations in response to persistently low prices, including prioritizing lower-cost supply contracts, harvesting from internally owned timberlands and/or mixing up their product offerings. Douglas-fir log prices are converging at slightly lower levels. Log inventories are down and while exports to Japan are strong, those to China have weakened.

Hay

Hay prices in the Western states have remained stable, with improvements in domestic and export demand. Increasing hay exports are met with ongoing pricing concerns as exchange rates are making U.S. hay imports more costly to some international buyers and negating the benefits of lower prices.

Lemons and oranges

U.S. potato storage is at its highest in five years, with manageable production expected in 2024 due to Idaho’s weather conditions. Eastern Idaho farmers avoided a water crisis with a recent settlement, yet they face an October deadline to establish a sustainable water rights agreement.

Wheat

Wheat growers are navigating a challenging year with low prices, eroding basis and storage concerns. Market sentiment remains poor even with a more bullish international outlook.

Wine and wine grapes

Low- to mid-range wine categories are experiencing flat to declining sales growth due to rising income inequality, premiumization, generational preferences and consumers’ willingness to pay more for the same brands. While Washington and Oregon are likely to have average-sized 2024 crops, Central Coast California may experience a smaller-than-average crop.

The AgWest Monthly Market Update also includes rotating features such as economic updates, profitability outlooks and other agriculture-related insights. In this month’s outlook, members of the AgWest management team prepared a quarterly economic update, which can be viewed here.