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Lemon and orange updates
Navel season winds down, and lemon prices remain low.
Navel prices increased 20% in April as supply of the 2024 crop winds down. Anecdotal reports suggest some growers delayed harvest on their navel crop in the hopes of capturing higher prices. Some packers are expanding cold storage facilities to extend the fresh market season; a challenge given fruit quality degrades quickly following harvest. U.S. tariffs on imported oranges may help to increase market prices and support profitability for domestic growers. (Orange imports peak between June and November.) It remains unclear as to how retaliatory actions by top export markets (Canada, South Korea and Japan) will impact U.S. exports, particularly as they won’t pick up until November. Orange juice prices have fallen about 50% from historic highs as Brazil expects a rebound in its orange crop. Brazil’s 2024 crop was among the smallest on record.
Lemon harvest has ramped up in the coastal region of California and continues in the Central Valley. Prices remain depressed overall but are up year over year for larger fruit sizes. Prices for small fruit are down notably due to excess supply. This price dynamic may change given reports that many growers in the coastal region are delaying harvest to size up fruit and get better prices. U.S. imports generally pick up mid-May with Argentinian fruit, followed by Chile in July. USDA forecasts a decline in Argentinian production due to persistent rainfall during bloom.
Profitability
March 12, 2025
Lemons: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Oranges: Slighlty profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Weak demand will continue to weigh on lemon growers.
Good quality and improving fruit sizes should continue to support demand. Some expect exports to increase later in the season.
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