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Cautious optimism for the 2024 apple crop.
The apple industry is cautiously optimistic for the 2024 marketing season. The smaller 2024 crop should support prices by early 2025, which in turn should improve producer margins. The organic sector continues to see strong growth in consumer demand.
Harvest has kicked off and fruit quality and color appear generally favorable. Intense summer heat has resulted in a smaller-than-average size profile. Prices strengthened across most varieties in September with the exception of Galas due to increased supply. Galas are among the first varieties harvested in a season. Honeycrisp supply is significantly down on the 2024 crop, enabling packers to better clear inventories from the 2023 crop. A significant number of growers have reported issues with bitter pit (damage due to nutrient deficiencies, often resulting from excess heat) for the Honeycrisp crop. Diversified producers in Washington and Oregon may experience the smallest pear crop in 40 years. Pear prices are rising, which may lead to above average returns for growers.
September 11, 2024
Apple producers: Very unprofitable (2023 crop) - Bullish 12-month outlook (2024 crop)
Apple packers: Slightly Profitable (2023 crop) - Neutral 12-month outlook (2024 crop)
The 2023 apple crop was very large, which led to a sharp fall in prices and very unprofitable conditions for growers. Looking ahead, a smaller 2024 crop should support prices and profitability.
Apple packers benefitted from a large 2023 crop due to high volume throughput. While the 2024 crop is smaller, it should still be sufficient to support profitability.