Apples

Apple updates

Cautious optimism across the industry.

Most in the apple industry are cautiously optimistic for the 2024-25 season as supply aligns with demand. Harvest of the 2024 crop is winding down, with only Envy and pink varieties left to pick. Quality is favorable and, while yields on Granny Smith and Cosmic Crisp varieties came in strong, Honeycrisp yields are reportedly down 25-35%. Prices improved notably in September, and many expect them to further strengthen early in 2025 as supply from Michigan and New York winds down. The 2023-24 season was among the most unprofitable on record and is incentivizing orchard removals and fewer planted acres. While lower supply moving forward should support grower profitability, packers without a sufficient volume of throughput may come under pressure over the next several years.

Producers in northern growing regions are facing a very short pear crop, with yields down an estimated 30-60% due to adverse winter weather. Lower supply coupled with a good quality crop should support profitability for pear producers in southern growing regions. Cherry prices for the 2024 season support profitability but were below initial expectations.

Profitability

September 11, 2024

Apple producers: Very unprofitable (2023 crop) - Bullish 12-month outlook (2024 crop)
Apple packers: Slightly Profitable (2023 crop) - Neutral 12-month outlook (2024 crop)

The 2023 apple crop was very large, which led to a sharp fall in prices and very unprofitable conditions for growers. Looking ahead, a smaller 2024 crop should support prices and profitability.

Apple packers benefitted from a large 2023 crop due to high volume throughput. While the 2024 crop is smaller, it should still be sufficient to support profitability.

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