Apples

Apple updates

Conditions remain challenging for Northwest apple growers.

While prices are holding above last season, they remain on average below break-even. Insurance payments for the 2023 crop on Whole Farm Revenue Protection policies are larger than normal, resulting in an added layer of review and the slower processing of claims. Bud set suggests the 2025 crop could be large, though it remains very early in the season and any number of weather events could impact yields. Anecdotal evidence suggests the combination of removing marginal orchards and/or lower yields from minimally managed orchards (where producers reduce pruning, fertilizing, etc.) in 2025 could meaningfully lower total production. Minimally managed orchards can also lead to smaller and lower quality fruit. Also, low reservoir levels in the Yakima Valley may limit access to water. There is a relatively high percentage of young orchards across the Northwest, and some estimate the total production capacity in the region has increased to 135 million boxes before considering minimally managed and/or removed orchards in 2025. On March 4, The Trump Administration announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which on average make up about 15% of total sales.

The 2025 pear crop in northern Washington should rebound following winter damage last season, which would support profitability for diversified tree fruit growers in the region. While too early for official estimates, cherry growers in California are expecting an early start to harvest, and the Northwest may follow suit.

Profitability

March 12, 2025

Apple producers: Unprofitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Apple packers: Slightly Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Prices for certain varieties should improve throughout the season as supplies wind down. Growers with a solid mix of Honeycrisp will fare relatively well compared to others due to its strong pricing.

Packers will continue to benefit from the larger than average 2024 crop.

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