Apples

Industry drivers

Crop size and quality varies

The Jan. 1 Washington State Tree Fruit Associations (WSTFA) Storage Report puts the 2022 Washington apple crop at 102 million boxes, one of the smallest crops in 20 years due to unfavorable weather conditions. Fruit size and coloring varies by variety and harvest timing. Cosmic Crisp is seeing a record crop size, as large acreage continues to become productive, with decent quality.

Packers face low throughput

With a smaller 2022 crop, some packers will struggle to procure sufficient throughput this season. This may be even more problematic for those whose fixed cost structures are relatively high compared to other packers of their general size.

Demand and prices favorable

Consumer demand is strong. Pricing is favorable and should hold given smaller supplies and pent-up demand. A strong dollar and falling shipping rates could potentially lead to more Southern Hemisphere imports. The processor market is strong and providing an outlet for lower grade and damaged fruit. Apple exports are down 25% from last year and this trend should continue into 2023 due to the small size of the 2022 crop.

Season to Date Prices by Variety

Source: WSTFA Jan. 4, 2022, Weekly Summary Bulletin Report.

International supply down 

USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service expects the 2022-23 global apple crop supply to decrease nearly 10% from last season’s crop, primarily due to poor Chinese yields; however, this level is still near the five-year average. Imports to the U.S. generally peak between April and September and come primarily from New Zealand and Chile. The U.S. dollar 

Crop input conditions improving

Transportation costs are falling, which may improve access to distant markets and increase cost competitiveness of Chilean and New Zealand imports. While fertilizer prices remain at historically high levels, they are trending down and should hopefully take some pressure off of growers next season. Energy prices remain volatile, but demand seems to be falling faster than supply for the time being. An emerging concern is political instability and rising COVID-19 infections and outcomes in China, a major supplier of agriculture parts, equipment and machinery. Please refer to our Crop Inputs Snapshot for a detailed analysis of crop input conditions.

Profitability

Apple producers will likely see slightly profitable conditions in 2023. While a small crop is a challenge, favorable market conditions along with crop insurance should generally offset the impact on producers. Packers do not have the same risk management tools as producers (there is no “crop insurance” for packers), and as such packer performance will vary more widely. Some packers have sufficient fruit in storage to generate positive returns, while others are likely operating below the breakeven threshold.