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Apple updates
Apple industry faces flat prices and an uncertain operating environment.
Apple prices generally held flat in March. While shipments to retailers and export markets are strong it remains unclear if the crop will clear ahead of the 2025 marketing season. Bud set suggests the 2025 crop could be large; however, late season weather events, lower water availability, reduced spending on management practices (pruning, fertilizer/herbicide application, etc.) and/or orchard removals are likely to have a counterbalancing effect. Reservoirs that support irrigation in the Yakima Valley are well below their historical averages but conditions should improve over the next two months as mountain snowpack melts. (Snow water equivalent levels across the region are at/near median levels.) President Trump announced relatively high tariffs for key export markets, including India (about 8% of total exports), Taiwan (about 8%) and Vietnam (about 5%). How these countries respond is not yet clear as of the writing of this report. No new tariffs were announced for Canada and Mexico, by far the largest export markets. Anecdotal reports suggest India and the U.S. are in negotiation to remove or reduce import tariffs on U.S. fruit and nuts. India currently applies a 50% tariff on apple imports.
Pear prices increased moderately in March. Bud set suggests the 2025 crop will rebound from last season, though it remains too early for accurate estimates.
Profitability
March 12, 2025
Apple producers: Unprofitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Apple packers: Slightly Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Prices for certain varieties should improve throughout the season as supplies wind down. Growers with a solid mix of Honeycrisp will fare relatively well compared to others due to its strong pricing.
Packers will continue to benefit from the larger than average 2024 crop.
