Wheat

Wheat updates

2026 Harvest: Bin-busting yields in the Northwest, disappointing yields in Montana.

Harvest is wrapping up across the Pacific Northwest and Montana, with producers reporting sharply different outcomes. In Washington, Idaho, and Oregon, winter wheat yields were among the strongest seen in recent years, with some growers reporting record production.

An abundance of low-protein wheat has created challenges throughout the grain handling system. Reports from cooperatives indicate that large volumes of low-protein wheat in the Pacific Northwest have slowed export demand, contributing to river terminal congestion and barge shortages. A handful of facilities have temporarily restricted deliveries due to transportation and storage constraints. These bottlenecks have left some producers waiting longer to market grain and triggered discounts at delivery.

Conditions in Montana present a stark contrast to those in the Pacific Northwest. Montana producers experienced spring frost events followed by prolonged summer heat and little rain since June that reduced yields and limited grain fill. While winter wheat generally proved more resilient than spring wheat and pulse crops, many producers reported disappointing yields and quality concerns. In eastern Montana, producers have reported winter wheat yields as low as 20 bushels per acre.

Wheat markets strengthened during August as ongoing disruptions to Black Sea grain exports, and continued attacks on port and grain-handling infrastructure in the Russia-Ukraine conflict raised concerns about global wheat supplies. The resulting uncertainty pushed futures markets higher, helping soft white wheat cash bids in portions of the Pacific Northwest climb into the upper-$6 to low-$7 per bushel range, levels not seen in several years. Basis in the Northwest has weakened for hard red spring wheat while soft white and hard red winter have strengthened. While stronger prices are welcome, the rally may prove temporary. Wheat futures moved lower during the first week of September as discussions between Russia and Ukraine eased some supply concerns. In response, many producers are taking advantage of the recent price strength to market grain and lock in profitable returns rather than risk a potential market correction.

Profitability

Producers remain near breakeven as wheat prices, while improved from recent lows, continue to lag production costs. Recent strength in wheat markets can be tied to geopolitical conflict in the Black Sea region. While global supply concerns have improved the outlook, many producers remain cautious.