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Wheat producers face strong yields but low prices in 2024.
Wheat producers are navigating a complex landscape of strong yields, low prices, and lingering high input costs. Despite record yields in some regions, such as central Montana and central Washington, many Western producers still anticipate needing insurance payments to cover their costs.
Western 2024 winter wheat production was 332.9 million bushels, a 17.6% increase year over year. Timely rains boosted Oregon and Washington winter wheat production, forecasted up 20.6% and 22.9% year over year, respectively. Durum production has been lackluster for AgWest producers, with steady production but lower quality and yields. However, national durum production increased by 25.9% due to North Dakota’s large crop, which was 1.6 times larger than the 2023 crop. The silver lining is that durum prices were higher compared to other wheat prices. Spring wheat production increased due to stronger yields, with Idaho and Washington seeing significant yield improvements of 7 and 5 bushels per acre, respectively, thanks to improved drought conditions from 2023.
Wheat markets rallied briefly in mid-September in response to reports of dry weather in Russia and Ukraine, with prices for white wheat rallying to $6 per bushel before retreating to $5.70-$5.95 per bushel. However, large quantities of unsold wheat, some of which are stored in piles outside of elevators, are keeping prices low, leaving many wheat producers at or near breakeven levels. Crop insurance prices for 2025 were set at $7.09 for winter wheat and $6.49 for spring wheat. Typically, spring wheat is sold at a premium above winter wheat prices, and some producers are planning to exclude planting spring wheat in 2025. Looking ahead, winter wheat planting for the 2025 crop is off to a good start, with many producers optimistic due to decent moisture levels.
September 11, 2024
Wheat: Breakeven profitability - Bearish 12-month outlook
Declining prices, a large carryover from previous year’s crop, and interest expense will create headwinds for wheat growers.
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