Wheat

Wheat updates

Dry weather pressures wheat market.

Early winter wheat reports for the 2025-26 crop are concerning, with only 38% of the national crop rated good to excellent. This is below expectations. In the western states, about 50% of the crop is rated good to excellent, and recent rainfall should further improve condition reports. Montana, however, lags at only 34% good to excellent condition. Despite the link between fall and spring conditions, it’s too early to predict upcoming winter weather impacts. Globally, dry conditions in four of the five largest wheat-exporting countries have reduced production forecasts, though prices have remained steady.

Wheat exports for the 2024-25 crop are forecasted to hit a four-year high. Despite this, producer sentiment remains bearish. The USDA projects the all-wheat farm price at $5.70 per bushel, making profitability challenging. Although futures markets show some upside, most growers are selling due to difficulties in covering operating interest and storage fees (with additional challenges for growers whose storage fees were increased). Many growers will rely on crop insurance and supplemental coverage to break even this year.

Profitability

September 11, 2024

Wheat: Breakeven profitability - Bearish 12-month outlook

Declining prices, a large carryover from previous year’s crop, and interest expense will create headwinds for wheat growers.

Informational videos