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October 9, 2024
2024 wine grape crops are mixed.
Supply of wine and wine grapes continues to exceed demand across the West. Prices for uncontracted wine grapes have fallen significantly. High inflation over the last two years has impacted consumer willingness to travel, resulting in fewer visits to wineries and lower Direct-to-Consumer sales (down 9% year over year by value and 18% by volume in August). Off-premise and on-premise sales value declined 4% and 2% year over year in August. Efforts to reduce alcohol consumption by various temperance organizations and the World Health Organization may be driving some of the weaker consumer demand (in addition to other factors). Some in the industry expect these efforts to strengthen and eventually influence policy.
California – Anecdotal reports now suggest the wine grape crop could come in 10-40% smaller than last year due to frost damage, excessive heat and stressed vines from the large 2023 crop. A significantly smaller crop could negatively impact grower margins, but wineries may benefit from better flavor concentration and quality fruit. A smaller crop may help to rebalance supply with demand and improve movement for excess 2023 bulk wine still in inventory. Overall, demand for bulk wine is down as wineries scale back production to match current demand levels.
Oregon – Harvest is underway and expectations are now for an average size crop. Some growers are reportedly not harvesting their entire crop due to weak markets. Quality is generally good, but there are some reports of smoke taint (wine grapes impacted by wildfire smoke) in southern Oregon and powdery mildew across the Willamette Valley.
Washington – Wine grape yields are looking average to above average for the 2024 crop. Fruit quality is strong, but there are reports of a significant level of smoke taint.
September 11, 2024
Wine: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Wine grapes: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Weak markets and excess supply are pressuring wineries. This is unlikely to change over the next year.
Weak markets and excess wine supply are lowering demand for wine grapes. Producers without contracts may find it difficult to find a home for their fruit.
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