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Challenging market conditions persist.
Premium wine markets continue to strengthen while those in the low- to mid-range categories experience flat to declining sales growth. Rising income inequality, premiumization (consumers trading up to more expensive options), generational preferences and consumers’ willingness to pay more for the same brands are largely driving this trend. White wines are outperforming reds, leading to an oversupply in notable varieties such as Cabernet Sauvignon. Inventories are drawing down as wholesalers seek to reduce inventory costs.
California – In the Central Coast, indications suggest a potentially light wine grape crop for early-season varietals, which may help to alleviate oversupply in the bulk market. Growers are increasingly putting vineyards up for sale (in some cases to manage financial obligations) or removing acres near the end of their economic lifecycle. The North Coast is reportedly showing a variance in crop size and quality based on variety.
Washington - Washington should have a high-quality, average-size crop; however, severe winter weather impacted some producers in Walla Walla, Chelan and northern Washington. Many uncontracted producers are removing acres and either leaving the land fallow or replanting with different varietals or row crops. Districts with junior water rights may face water limitations this season.
Oregon - Oregon producers are also expecting a high-quality, average-size crop. While the state is slightly oversupplied and experiencing a decline in Direct-to-Consumer sales, market conditions remain generally favorable.
March 31, 2024
As a whole, wineries should be slightly profitable, and vineyards breakeven over the next year. Both Washington and California are likely to remain oversupplied for multiple years. Some producers with uncontracted production in Washington are removing acres and some vineyards experienced damage over the winter. Direct-to-Consumer sales are mixed, with Oregon and California experiencing declines in sales volumes. Falling import volumes and rising per-bottle values may provide some support to domestic prices.
12-Month Profitability Outlook
View the latest AgWest Wine/Vineyard Industry Perspective
Learn moreAug 15, 2024, 11:00 AM
AgWest is pleased to be joined by Derrell Peel, livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, for a timely outlook on the cattle market. In this one-hour webinar, Derrell will look at expected production levels, profitability forecasts and essential risk management tools to ensure you’re well-prepared for the cattle market’s future.