Almonds and Pistachios

Almond and pistachio updates

Harvest is largely complete on the almond crop.

Almond prices remained well above previous year’s levels on strong export demand, tight inventories, and expectations for a smaller crop, although buyer resistance increased in the second half of September. Harvest is largely complete, with industry estimates generally ranging between 2.5 and 2.6 billion pounds. Favorable weather conditions allowed for a relatively quick harvest. Smaller kernel sizes have tightened supplies of larger premium nuts, contributing to stronger pricing for those categories. While spider mite damage, red leaf blotch, and water stress have been reported, overall quality appears favorable and supportive of low rejection rates at processors. Recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China could eventually reduce tariff rates on U.S. almonds entering China, improving the competitiveness of California almonds in a historically important export market.

Pistachio prices continued to strengthen as the industry increasingly observes one of the smallest crops in recent years at roughly 600 million pounds, or about two-thirds below last season's production. The most significant losses occurred in Kerman varieties, particularly in the southern San Joaquin Valley, where some orchards were not harvested due to extremely light yields. Processors are prioritizing long-standing customers and allocating limited supplies rather than pursuing new business. Some growers are utilizing huller-run facilities, where pistachios receive only hulling services and bypass traditional processing functions such as sizing, drying, and roasting. This allows growers to sell raw product directly to buyers rather than through traditional processing and marketing channels, resulting in faster payments while taking advantage of strong market pricing. The short crop has increased interest in the huller-run model, which also carries lower processing costs. Despite recent growth, huller-run volumes remain a relatively small share of industry production and are not expected to materially impact processor profitability.

Profitability

Strong demand, low inventory carry-over and an estimated smaller 2026 crop has improved the supply and demand outlook. 

Estimates for the 2026 pistachio crop suggest significant year-over-year production declines due to spring heat, low pollination and alternate bearing. With rising prices, profitability will largely be determined by whether a producer has sufficient yields and/or crop insurance.