Almonds and Pistachios

Tree nut updates

Cautious optimism among producers.

Most in the almond sector are cautiously optimistic for the 2024-25 season. The almond crop is likely to come in below estimates (approximately 2.7 billion pounds), with yields in Kern and Tulare counties reportedly down 20%. Quality is generally favorable, though southern growing regions are experiencing smaller nut sizes. Processing is occurring more quickly than normal as relatively hot weather during harvest led to drier nuts. Prices increased in the last three months due to the lower supply and generally favorable quality; however, higher demand for lower grade nuts has narrowed the spread between them and higher grade nuts. Many growers are waiting for prices to improve on higher grade nuts before selling. Demand from Europe is reportedly strong, but weaker from the Middle East and India. Demand from India is expected to increase mid-November following the Diwali festival.

The 2024 pistachio crop will likely come in below initial estimates due in part to low pollination, and intense heat and cold earlier in the season. Lower yields, minimal inventory carry-over and generally favorable quality should continue to support prices this season; however, growers with poor yields may experience compressed margins. Yields and quality in Arizona, a smaller pistachio producing region, are reportedly very good. Demand is reportedly strong heading into the 2024 marketing season.

There is increasing concern that growers in white lands (land without surface water) will face greater water restrictions as plans derived from the Sustainable Groundwater Management Acts (SGMA) are rolled out across irrigation districts. While greater water restrictions would reduce supply and improve prices, grower profitability in these areas could be negatively impacted.

Profitability

September 11, 2024

Almonds: Slightly unprofitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Almond buyers are delaying purchases in hopes of lower prices, and this is impacting demand. However, a lower-than-expected crop size and inventory carry-over from 2023 should support prices later in the season.

Pistachio prices are holding near 2023 levels, which are supportive of producer profitability.