Almonds and Pistachios

Almond and pistachio updates

Almond prices stage a strong rally.

Almond prices rallied about 10% from mid-February. Demand from buyers in the Middle East has increased significantly as they restock depleted inventories following Ramadan, a religious period in which practitioners fast during the day. (Almonds are often consumed before dawn for their nutritional content.) Some international buyers may also be frontloading purchases in anticipation of countervailing tariffs. Inshell supply is tightening both domestically and in India, which may continue to support prices over the next few months. (India is the primary market for inshell almonds). Bloom/pollination peaked mid-March, about a week ahead of normal. Hailstorms in the northern San Joaquin Valley in early March may have led to bloom/stem damage in some orchards, though the full extent remains unclear.

Pistachio prices and shipments to retailers continue at a stable pace. Weather conditions have thus far been favorable during bloom/pollination. With younger acres starting to reach peak production along with it being an ‘on’ year for alternate bearing, the 2025 crop will likely come in large (1.5 to 1.6 billion pounds).

President Trump announced high tariffs on several key tree nut export markets, including China, India, Europe, Japan, South Korea and others. How these countries respond is not yet clear at the writing of this report. There are reports suggesting India and the U.S. are in negotiation to address import barriers on U.S. fruit and nuts. India makes up about 20% of almond exports and 3.5% of pistachio exports. Currently, U.S. producers are subject to tariffs set at $.66 per pound of unshelled almonds, and $2.58 per pound of shelled kernels. Pistachios are subject to 11% duties for both in-shell and shelled nuts. (The terms duties and tariffs are often used interchangeably and while there is some distinction between the two, their net effect is the same.)

Profitability

March 12, 2025

Almonds: Slightly profitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Almond prices should continue to improve on strengthening North American and European demand.

A good quality 2025 crop, minimal inventory carry-over and strong demand should continue to support prices.