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Almond and pistachio crops to come in light.
Almond prices appear mixed, with increases for kernels and little to no movement for inshells. Demand from India, a large consumer of inshell nuts, is tepid in part due to inventory carryover from purchases earlier in the year. Harvest is well underway, and reports suggest a light crop with smaller-than-average nut sizes due to hot summer weather. Yields will likely come in below USDA’s official 2.8-billion-pound estimate. The Almond Board of California’s August Position Report shows an inventory carryover of 502 million lbs, but there is some indication of shipment rates increasing in September. A lighter-than-expected crop, along with depleting inventories, should improve the balance of supply and demand over the next year, which should bolster prices.
Pistachio harvest is underway, and the industry expects the 2024 crop to come in between 950 million and 1.1 billion lbs. This level is a notable decrease from 2023 due to it being an off year for production (Pistachio trees are alternate bearing, producing a large crop one year and a small the next). Prices are holding firm and may increase on the shorter supply; however, this is unlikely to compensate for the loss in volume. Base prices are flat from last season, but bonus payments (provided at end of the season) should improve, assuming pistachio prices increase.
September 11, 2024
Almonds: Slightly unprofitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Almond buyers are delaying purchases in hopes of lower prices, and this is impacting demand. However, a lower-than-expected crop size and inventory carryover from 2023 should support prices later in the season.
Pistachio prices are holding near 2023 levels, which are supportive of producer profitability.