Crop Inputs

Crop input updates

Shipping costs fall.

Oil prices fell about 7% over the last month in large part due to relatively weak economic data coming out of China. However, volatility remains high due to uncertainty around how tension between Iran and Israel may escalate. Israel and Iran both conducted missile strikes against one another with limited impacts. So far Israel has focused on military targets. An attack against Iran’s oil infrastructure is unlikely without U.S. support. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) recently announced delays in output hikes, which boosted prices early in November.

Bulk shipping prices fell approximately 35% over the last month, largely driven by low iron ore demand from China. Grain shipments out of Brazil are also below expectations with drought causing low water levels on Amazonian rivers. Conflict in the Red Sea continues to disrupt trade flows and lead to bottlenecks. The U.S. trucking sector remains subdued due to low demand, particularly from the manufacturing sector. Most expect rates to hold relatively flat over the next several months, absent a spike in fuel costs.

Nitrogen prices are holding relatively flat above pre-pandemic levels. There is reportedly strong global demand coupled with below average inventory levels, supply disruptions in Trinidad and Egypt, reduced production levels in Europe, and planned maintenance activities in the Middle East. China continues to limit Urea exports, which continues to support nitrogen markets. Hurricanes Helene and Milton are expected to have had minimal impact on phosphate production in Florida. Potash prices have softened gradually since April but are reportedly nearing the cost of production, suggesting prices are unlikely to come down further.