Crop Inputs

Crude oil prices remained elevated and diesel prices reached record highs during September as ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to Russian energy exports continued to impact global energy markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 supply outlook, citing prolonged production outages, shrinking diesel inventories, and delays in the return of normal Gulf oil exports, while attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes continued to support prices. IEA and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have reduced their estimates for oil consumption in 2026 due in large part to high fuel prices and reduced availability. Lower demand should help to dampen price increases, though it remains unclear by how much. Demand remains near historical levels, and both IEA and OPEC expect consumption rates to rebound in 2027. 

Fertilizer prices moved slightly higher through September as growers prepared for fall applications and global supplies remained tight. According to DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends, prices for six of the eight major fertilizers tracked in the U.S. increased compared to the prior month. Nitrogen fertilizers continue to be a key area of concern, with anhydrous ammonia prices running about 25% above year-ago levels amid ongoing global supply constraints, including disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East. China's export restrictions on phosphate products expired on Aug. 31, though it remains unclear how quickly additional exports will improve global supplies. China is the world's largest producer of phosphate products and was historically one of the largest exporters before export restrictions were introduced in 2021. Potash markets have been comparatively stable. 

Transportation costs moved higher during September as rising diesel prices, tightening truck capacity, and ongoing ocean-shipping disruptions increased pressure across supply chains. In the trucking sector, elevated fuel costs pushed all-in freight expenses higher, while tender rejection rates remain elevated primarily due to reduced carrier availability. (Higher tender rejection rates, or the percentage of contracted freight loads that trucking carriers decline when shippers offer, generally signal tighter trucking capacity and/or carriers choosing more profitable loads.) Container imports also remained stronger than expected, extending the traditional peak shipping season into September as importers continued to rebuild inventories and move product ahead of potential trade-policy changes. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below normal levels due to ongoing Middle East security concerns. Meanwhile, continued water-related operational constraints at the Panama Canal and increasing competition for vessel slots have created additional challenges for bulk commodity exporters. As a result, agricultural shippers are increasingly evaluating alternative transportation routes and coastal gateways, adding complexity and potential costs to grain and fertilizer supply chains.