In the News

The update features unique insights into economic drivers impacting agriculture and forestry in the West. In addition to market analysis on 10 major agricultural commodities and crop inputs, this month’s report also offers in-depth analysis from AgWest’s lending, appraisal and crop insurance teams in a profitability report.

AgWest’s outlook for major commodities is summarized below. Visit AgWestFC.com/industry-insights to view expanded analysis for each industry, monthly economic headlines, relevant data and trends and additional special reports.

Almonds and pistachios

The 2024 almond crop is expected to be smaller than official estimates. A shorter crop and limited inventory carryover may support almond prices throughout the season. Pistachio prices are holding near 2023 levels, supporting producer profitability.

Apples

The 2024 apple crop will be significantly smaller than the previous season, supporting prices and profitability once inventories of the 2023 crop are sold. Harvest on Galas is underway with good color and quality, though mixed quality is reported for other varieties.

Cattle

Cow-calf returns remain at record highs, but producers are not expanding herds due to high cattle prices, drought and other challenges. Beef production remains strong with robust consumer demand.

Dairy

Higher milk prices and lower feed costs boost producer optimism, but challenges like highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) remain. Dairy markets are bullish, with strong prices for cull cows and crossbred beef calves.

Forest products

Lumber and log prices held flat in August driven by a weak U.S. housing market. Should the Federal Reserve lower interest rates this fall, it is unlikely to significantly improve the housing market in 2024. Tariffs on imported Canadian lumber increased in light of weaker U.S. lumber prices. It is unclear if higher tariffs will translate to better domestic prices.

Hay

Western hay producers struggle with low alfalfa prices and mixed yields. National alfalfa prices have declined, and export markets remain weak due to slow sales and low international milk prices.

Oranges and lemons

Valencia harvest is wrapping up with strong juice prices supporting grower profitability. The 2024 navel crop is progressing well with favorable sizing and quality. Lemon markets remain weak.

Potatoes

While domestic demand remains steady, export markets are sluggish. Although national potato production is expected to decline, the large remaining crop in storage will continue to keep prices low.

Wheat

Prices and unsold carryover grain in storage remain a concern. Soft white wheat production faced challenges from late frost and hot temperatures, resulting in lower yields and protein levels.

Wine and wine grapes

Oversupply is pressuring the wine and wine grapes industry. Many wineries are actively looking to reduce wine grape purchases. Many uncontracted growers are struggling to find buyers for their grapes, with some cutting back on expenses or removing acres altogether.