Ag Trends

As of July 2024, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, and there was a substantial downward revision of 818,000 jobs in the employment data, or about 68,000 fewer each month. This revised estimate follows a worse-than-expected jobs report for July, leading many economists to suggest that the Federal Reserve waited too long to begin cutting interest rates to support the economy.

Why the revisions?

Employment data is often revised as more complete information becomes available. Although the magnitude of this change was significant, it was part of an annual revision process. On August 21, 2024, the preliminary revision revealed the U.S. economy’s job growth was not as robust as previously expected from April 2023 through March 2024, adding about 2.1 million jobs instead of 2.9 million jobs growth.

Implications for agriculture producers

The revisions in employment data may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates faster than previously expected to avoid a hard landing (an economic contraction), although this is just one factor of many the Fed will consider. Lower interest rates improve profitability for agricultural producers by reducing interest expenses, allowing for greater investment. Increased discretionary income for consumers might enable them to purchase higher-value food items.

Could a higher unemployment rate help ease labor shortages in the agricultural sector?

The last significant revision of this magnitude occurred in 2009, when unemployment ranged from 7% to 9%. During that time, several agricultural organizations launched programs to encourage local labor to work for farmers, but most of these initiatives were unfruitful.