Oranges and Lemons

Orange and lemon updates

Navel season winds down, and lemon prices remain low.

The navel season is winding down and season-to-date supplies have reportedly come in below estimates. While prices for large fruit are relatively strong, those for medium to small sizes are notably down given excess supply. Growers with large, late season fruit may benefit from strong prices. Orange juice futures have collapsed from historic highs reached mid-2024, though they remain well above their historical averages. Estimates suggest the orange crop in Brazil, the largest U.S. supplier of juice concentrate, will recover by 14% to 30% from last season.

Juice supplies fell to historic lows in the 2024-25 season due to Brazil’s short crop. USDA expects the 2024-25 U.S. orange crop to decline 12% from the previous season as the combined effects of citrus greening and Hurricane Milton left Florida with the smallest harvest in nearly a century (315,000 tons for Valencias and 207,000 for non-Valencias).

Lemon prices generally held flat in March at slightly unprofitable levels, though larger size fruit experienced moderate price declines on rising supply. Harvest is taking place in both the Central Valley and Coastal regions. USDA projects the 2024-25 lemon crop to come in at 1.1 million tons, a notable increase over the previous season. Higher supplies and weak markets are likely to keep prices down for the foreseeable future.

Profitability

March 12, 2025

Lemons: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Oranges: Slighlty profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Weak demand will continue to weigh on lemon growers.

Good quality and improving fruit sizes should continue to support demand. Some expect exports to increase later in the season.