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February 12, 2025
Orange and lemon updates
Navel prices stabilized, while those for lemons fell.
Average navel prices stabilized in January and are about 16% below this time last year. Anecdotal reports suggest quality and size profile improved in the second half of the month due to increased rain and chilly nights, which may be supportive of prices. The 2024 clementine crop came in with good quality and normal to above average production. International juice prices remain near historically high levels due to reduced exports from Brazil. Brazilian orange production has been below average for five seasons now, with projections for the 2024/25 crop coming in at record low levels, or 30-35% below its 20-year average. Low production levels are attributed to hot, dry weather and lack of irrigation. Falling juice demand in some international markets has been partially offset by lower production levels in Florida. USDA forecasts 2024/25 orange production in Florida to decrease by 33% from last season.
Lemon prices declined in January, with the biggest moves occurring in smaller, choice grade fruits. Falling prices are likely the result of quality issues and excess small fruit supply. Harvest in the D3 growing region (Coachella Valley, Imperial Valley and parts of San Diego County) will be wrapping up soon, which may help bring down supply and support prices.
Profitability
December 11, 2024
Lemons: Slighty profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Oranges: Slighlty profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Lemon producers will likely continue to face challenging market conditions in 2025.
Prices have recently fallen for navels due to the small size profile. Many expect larger fruit over the next couple months, which should help to stabilize prices. Juice prices remain strong and supportive of profitability.
