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January 15, 2025
Citrus updates
Prices are down for both navel oranges and lemons.
Navel prices have stabilized following a sharp drop in December and are on average 17% below last year’s levels. The crop’s small size profile is leading to high prices for large fruit and low prices for smaller fruit. Global juice supply is down significantly due to Brazil’s short crop. While juice prices increased significantly in response, low returns continue to challenge growers. USDA’s January production estimate suggests flat year-over-year supply for navels and a 10% year-over-year decline in Valencias. USDA also reports orange acreage and production in Chile and South Africa, the largest foreign suppliers to the U.S., will rise in 2025.
Lemon harvest is picking up in the Central Valley where recent rains have led to an increase in fruit size. Fruit sizes remain smaller in the southern growing region. Prices are down slightly from last season and fell 3%-9% in December across small to medium sizes. Imports have wrapped up for the season. USDA reports acreage and production will increase in Chile in 2025, the largest foreign supplier to the U.S., and decrease in Argentina, the second largest supplier to the U.S.
Profitability
December 11, 2024
Lemons: Slighty profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Oranges: Slighlty profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Lemon producers will likely continue to face challenging market conditions in 2025.
Prices have recently fallen for navels due to the small size profile. Many expect larger fruit over the next couple months, which should help to stabilize prices. Juice prices remain strong and supportive of profitability.
