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October 9, 2024
Forest product updates
A weak housing market impacts lumber and log producers.
Lumber prices remained flat in September. While some are hopeful that recent interest rate cuts by the Fed could boost housing activity in Q4 2024, it is unlikely to have a material impact on prices and profitability until 2025. There are some indications that supply may be approaching a better balance with demand due in part to production curtailments in the southern U.S. and falling imports from Canada.
Log prices were flat to down in September. Some timberland operators have reportedly reduced harvest levels and inventories appear to be coming down. Year-to-date Douglas fir and western hemlock exports as of July are down 9% and 30% from 2023 levels. Anecdotal reports suggest continued softening in August and September. Demand is down from Japan, South Korea and China (key markets for U.S. producers). The Chinese government announced a significant economic stimulus program; however, it is not yet clear if this will translate into greater demand for U.S. logs.
Profitability
September 11, 2024
Forest product mills: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Timberlands: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
A weak housing market has led to weak lumber demand and this is unlikely to change until 2025. Current prices are near breakeven levels in the West.
Weak lumber markets have led to diminished demand for logs. This is unlikely to change until 2025.
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