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March 12, 2025
Potato updates
Processors cut contracted acres as potato surplus persists.
Potato industry dynamics from 2024 provide a strong indication of what producers can expect in 2025. The Northwest's 2024 potato crop was 4.6% smaller than the previous year due to surplus production, leading processors to reduce acres. The Columbia Basin in Washington saw a 5.3% reduction in acres, but due to high yields only a 3% reduction in overall production. Idaho faced greater production losses due to weather, despite smaller acreage cuts. Despite reduced acreage and production, there were still ample potatoes, and below breakeven prices for open market potatoes persisted.
In 2025, Northwest potato growers are expected to further reduce planting despite few profitable crop alternatives. Processors have cut contracted acres in the Columbia Basin and Idaho. Following the announcement of tariffs on March 4, anecdotal reports suggest that some producers have experienced contract cancelations, adding further uncertainty to the market. Below breakeven open market prices will discourage planting, as will irrigation constraints in affected potato production areas. (Potatoes are a water intensive crop.) While potato producers should anticipate another challenging year, these actions could help balance regional potato supply with processor demand (assuming year-over-year yields are steady to down).
Profitability
March 12, 2025
Potatoes (Contracted): Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Potatoes (Uncontracted): Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Stable pricing agreements benefit contracted potatoes, but many producers face reductions in contracted acres.
Recent surpluses of open market potatoes have driven prices down and will keep them below breakeven levels in the near term.
